NIGERIA MISSING AS EIGHT OPEC + MEMBERS RAISE OUTPUT
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, has been left out of a new output increase arrangement by eight members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), sparking concerns over the nation’s capacity to meet its budget target and mounting financial obligations.
A production table released by OPEC+ showed eight global oil-producing countries agreed to accelerate oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd).
The June Increase from the eight producers in the OPEC+ group will take the total combined hikes for April, May, and June to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44 percent unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd of various cuts agreed on since 2022, according to Reuters calculations.
The countries participating in the output hike include: Saudi Arabia (9.37 million bpd), the United Arab Emirates (3.09 million bpd), Iraq (4.09 million bpd), Kuwait (2.47 million bpd), Kazakhstan 1.5 million bpd), Algeria (928,000 bpd), Oman (775,000 bpd), and Russia (9.16 million bpd).
However, Nigeria, which has struggled with persistent production challenges, was notably excluded from the quota adjustment.
The country’s current output remains below its OPEC-assigned target, mainly due to operational disruptions, underinvestment in upstream infrastructure, and persistent crude oil theft in the Niger Delta region.
Specifically, the average daily oil production in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 did not meet the levels that had been anticipated in the budget.
Furthermore, the exchange rate between the naira and the dollar has declined to around N1,600 per dollar, which is weaker than the N1,500 per dollar rate that was assumed in the budget calculations.
Data gleaned from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed that Nigeria recorded 1.4 million bpd in crude production in March. This is 100,000 bpd lower than the set quota of 1.5 million bpd by OPEC.
Kelvin Emmanuel, an energy analyst, said Nigeria must either boost its production to meet its energy security needs or consider exiting OPEC if the organisation remains unwilling to accommodate its situation.
“Africa’s energy security has never been at the heart of the interest of OPEC. The organisation is a Saudi-controlled lobby that works with the American government,” he said.
According to Emmanuel, this is the reason Qatar, Indonesia, and Angola left, “and they are very much better for it.”
He said the Nigerian government needs bold policy thinkers who can chart a new course. “Our interest will be much better served in OPEC+ as a non-aligned declaration of cooperation members,” he further said.
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Oil prices is under pressure, with Brent, the benchmark for Nigeria’s crude trading, below $60 a barrel on Monday, representing a four-year low.
The OPEC+ decision sent prices tumbling another 6 percent, compounding a bearish sentiment triggered by trade war fears and weakening economic data.
On Monday, Brent, the benchmark for Nigeria’s crude, dropped by six percent to $59.39 a barrel by 6pm Nigerian time, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.31 a barrel, down 2.68 percent.
Goldman Sachs responded by slashing its December 2025 oil forecast by $5 to $66 for Brent and $62 for WTI, citing both rising OPEC+ supply and Donald Trump’s tariff barrage. “We no longer forecast a price range,” Goldman said, “because price volatility is likely to stay elevated on higher recession risk.”
Standard Chartered joined the chorus of bearish revisions, slashing its 2025 Brent forecast by $16 to $61 a barrel, and trimming its 2026 outlook to $78. The bank warned that the Trump administration’s tariff-heavy approach is fuelling recession fears and eroding market confidence, especially after a downbeat US economic report this week.
JPMorgan also raised its global recession odds to 60 percent for the year, while S&P Global warned that oil demand growth could drop by as much as 500,000 bpd.
OPEC+ justified the output hike by citing “continuing healthy market fundamentals,” though many see the move as an effort to assert market share and enforce compliance.
Analysts like Helima Croft argue that by opening the taps, Saudi Arabia is reasserting control over rogue members while signaling readiness to let prices fall to discipline the market.